格林大华期货早盘提示-20250624

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (silicon - ferromanganese and silicon) is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of silicon - ferromanganese and silicon - iron lacks driving force and should be regarded as range - bound oscillations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - On June 23, 2025, the SM2509 contract closed at 5610, a 0.11% decline from the previous trading day's close; the SF2509 contract closed at 5316, a 0.30% increase from the previous trading day's close [1] Important Information - On June 23, an Iranian senior official confirmed that Iran had accepted the cease - fire plan proposed by the US with Qatar's mediation between Iran and Israel [1] - On June 23, the coke market price was weak, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong reduced the purchase price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton [1] - Hangzhou launched a housing provident fund direct payment for the down - payment of home purchases. For newly built commercial housing purchased in Hangzhou, the provident fund can be directly used to pay the down - payment [1] Market Logic - The fundamentals of silicon - ferromanganese have changed little, and the industry is still in a loss cycle. The downward space at the cost end is narrowing, and the steel procurement in June is approaching the end, so it will mainly oscillate in the short term [1] - The recent market inquiry activity of silicon - iron is fair. The steel procurement in June is coming to an end, and downstream purchases are relatively cautious. The tender prices of steel mills are basically around 5450 - 5550 yuan/ton. The silicon - iron furnaces shut down by large factories in Inner Mongolia in May are planned to resume production soon [1] Trading Strategy - Silicon - ferromanganese and silicon - iron should be regarded as range - bound oscillations in the short term as their short - term rebound lacks driving force [1]