饮料行业系列报告（二）：拆解IFBH的椰子水王国

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding 15% compared to the benchmark index over the next six months [87]. Core Insights - IFBH is a leading player in the coconut water beverage market, with a strong presence in both mainland China and Hong Kong, holding significant market shares of approximately 34% and 60% respectively in 2024 [9][69]. - The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, with projected revenues of $15,764.8 million in 2024, reflecting an 80.3% year-on-year increase [6][27]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 34.7% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 19.2% to 21.1% in the same period [31][35]. Company Overview - IFBH is rooted in Thailand and has expanded its operations to over 11 countries, focusing on natural and healthy beverage options [9][19]. - The company operates a light-asset model, relying on third-party manufacturers and distributors, which enhances operational efficiency and scalability [48]. - The management team is experienced, with the founder Pongsakorn Pongsak having over a decade of experience in the food and beverage distribution industry [19][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $8,744.2 million in 2023, with a projected increase to $15,764.8 million in 2024, marking an 80.3% growth [6][27]. - Net profit is expected to rise from $1,675.4 million in 2023 to $3,331.6 million in 2024, representing a 98.9% increase [25][27]. - The company’s revenue from coconut water is projected to account for 95.6% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting its dominance in this product category [38]. Business Performance - Coconut water is the primary revenue driver, with sales expected to grow from $8,201.2 million in 2023 to $15,064.2 million in 2024 [38]. - The company has a strong distribution network, with an increase in active distributors from 36 in 2023 to 43 in 2024 [56]. - The majority of revenue is generated from mainland China, which accounted for 92.4% of total revenue in 2024 [41]. Industry Outlook - The global coconut water market is projected to grow from $2.517 billion in 2019 to $4.989 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.67% [64]. - The Greater China region is expected to see significant growth, with the market size increasing from $102 million in 2019 to $1.093 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 60.77% [69]. - The coconut water market in Hong Kong is also expanding, with a projected growth from $30.7 million in 2019 to $44.6 million in 2024 [70].