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摩根士丹利:中国思考-人民币与稳定币,谁稳定谁?
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley(US:MS)2025-06-24 02:28

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The report highlights concerns in Beijing regarding the potential consolidation of the US dollar's dominance due to recent US stablecoin legislation, prompting China to explore solutions through pilot programs in Hong Kong aimed at strengthening the international use of the Renminbi [1] - It emphasizes that while stablecoins are seen as tools for enhancing existing fiat currency circulation, they do not represent a new form of "supra-sovereign" international currency system [8] - The report indicates that the internationalization of the Renminbi faces significant challenges, including a decline in its share of global reserve currencies from 2.8% in early 2022 to 2.2% by the end of 2024, primarily due to issues such as debt, deflation, and capital outflows [9][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Stablecoins and the US Dollar - The US Senate's recent passage of the stablecoin (GENIUS) bill mandates that dollar-backed stablecoins must have 100% reserve assets, which could solidify the dollar's position in international payment systems [1] - Stablecoins are viewed as extending the reach of the dollar into cryptocurrency and emerging markets, rather than challenging its dominance [1] Section 2: Central Bank's Shift in Attitude - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted from a stance of outright rejection of virtual currencies to a more accepting view, recognizing the need for a diversified cross-border payment system [2] - The PBOC's digital currency initiatives and stablecoin developments are seen as efforts to reshape traditional payment systems [2] Section 3: Renminbi Stablecoin Prospects - The report discusses the current state of cross-border digital Renminbi transactions, primarily through the mBridge project, which is still in its early stages with limited participation [2] - It notes that while Renminbi stablecoins could enhance cross-border settlement, their development is hampered by domestic circulation restrictions and capital controls [2] Section 4: Infrastructure and Reform Needs - The report argues that improving the internationalization of the Renminbi requires structural reforms to restore global confidence in China's growth, including social welfare reform and debt restructuring [9] - It highlights that the development of Renminbi stablecoins should be viewed as part of a broader infrastructure for cross-border Renminbi settlements, alongside existing systems like CIPS [8]