高盛：美国关税影响追踪 - 高频趋势或显示中国热潮消退

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upgrade for truckers, suggesting a lessened probability of recession and a resilient consumer [12]. Core Insights - The inbound traffic from China to the US has shown slight sequential downticks of -7% for vessels and -4% for TEUs, indicating a potential moderation in the China surge [1][3]. - Year-over-year growth for laden vessels from China to the US accelerated to the high teens, despite the recent sequential decrease [3][19]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity/orders due to uncertainty [6][9]. - The report suggests that if the economy does not fall into recession and tariff issues stabilize, retailers may face inventory shortages leading to a surge in orders in the second half of 2025 [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Trade Patterns - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that the data can be volatile but informative over a multi-week basis [4][5]. - The recent data indicates that traffic from China to the US is outpacing that of Asia, ex-China, with a +16% year-over-year increase for TEUs [3][25]. Freight Demand and Container Rates - Container rates have shown a sequential drop of -2%, potentially foreshadowing a demand drop post the initial surge from China [3]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles increased by +23% sequentially, reflecting the volatility of shipper decisions [37]. Economic Outlook and Inventory Trends - The report highlights that logistics managers' inventory levels are expanding upstream while compressing downstream, indicating a potential mismatch in supply and demand [68][73]. - The Logistics Managers Index shows higher inventory costs, reflecting increased storage costs as inventory builds before moving to consumers [74]. Port Activity and Shipping Volumes - Major ports in the US experienced a -10% year-over-year decline in volumes, with a significant drop of -22% sequentially from April to May [53][59]. - The report notes that the Big Three ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) are seeing a strong relationship between inbound volumes and TEU growth from Asia [58][61].