高盛：中国经济指标更新

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decreased to +4.3% month-on-month annualized seasonally adjusted in May from +4.6% in April, indicating a slight slowdown in economic activity [7] - The weakening in CAI was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, suggesting challenges in this area [12] - The import-implied domestic demand proxy indicates largely stable growth in recent months, reflecting resilience in domestic consumption [9] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased in May, mainly due to foreign exchange depreciation against a trade-weighted basket, which may impact liquidity conditions [27][24] - The report anticipates a faster pace of government bond issuance in the coming months, with an additional RMB1 trillion quota expected to be approved [36] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Indicators - The CAI fell to +4.3% in May, down from +4.6% in April, indicating a deceleration in economic momentum [7] - Manufacturing and construction growth proxies both declined in May, highlighting sector-specific weaknesses [13] Domestic Demand - The import-implied domestic demand proxy suggests stable growth, indicating that domestic consumption remains resilient despite external pressures [9] Financial Conditions - The FCI eased in May, primarily driven by FX depreciation, which may affect overall economic liquidity [27][24] - The growth impact of FCI impulse is expected to turn positive from Q2 onwards, suggesting potential recovery in economic activity [12] Government Policy - The report notes a slight tightening in the domestic macro policy proxy in May, driven by a narrower fiscal deficit, which may influence future economic stimulus measures [35] - An increase in government bond issuance is projected, with expectations of an additional RMB1 trillion quota to be approved [36]