Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc ingot inventory has not undergone a qualitative change. The spot market transaction has not improved, and the spot premium continues to decline. The zinc alloy operating rate has significantly decreased, and there may be a negative feedback of hidden inventory. The TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is still increasing. The smelting profit exists, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains unchanged. The overall consumption shows a marginal downward trend, and the zinc price lacks fundamental driving force for an increase. If the social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 80 yuan per ton to 21,950 yuan per ton, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 15 yuan per ton to 100 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 150 yuan per ton to 21,850 yuan per ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 85 yuan per ton to 0 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 90 yuan per ton to 21,930 yuan per ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium dropped by 25 yuan per ton to 80 yuan per ton [1] - Futures: On June 23, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 21,955 yuan per ton and closed at 21,980 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 97,888 lots, a decrease of 6,808 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 67,890 lots, a decrease of 8,673 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,005 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 21,830 yuan per ton [1] - Inventory: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the same period last week. As of June 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 125,900 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The spot market transaction has not improved. Even though the social inventory has slightly declined, the spot premium continues to fall. The zinc alloy operating rate has significantly decreased, and there may be a negative feedback of hidden inventory. The TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is still increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. The current TC price still allows for smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains unchanged. The overall consumption shows a marginal downward trend, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and the zinc price lacks fundamental driving force for an increase. If the social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]
新能源及有色金属日报：锌锭库存尚未形成质的改变-20250624
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-24 03:16