工业硅、多晶硅日评：低位整理-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, and the downward space may be relatively limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.41% to 7,420 yuan/ton. The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon showed little change, except for a 1.20% drop in the average price of non - oxygenated 553 in Kunming and a 1.02% drop in the average price of 421 in Sichuan [1] - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.42% to 30,615 yuan/ton [1] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and organic silicon products remained unchanged [1] Export and Import Information - Organic silicon: In May 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane was 4.66 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. From January to May 2025, the total export volume was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73% [1] - Industrial silicon: In May 2025, the export volume was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume was 27.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The import volume in May 2025 was very small, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 0.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55% [1] Inventory Information - As of June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 13.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: For industrial silicon, the start - up of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs, so the enterprise start - up is steadily increasing. For polysilicon, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and although there may be new capacity put into operation, the overall supply is expected to increase slightly [1] - Demand side: For industrial silicon, polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts and the resumption of production may be postponed; organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient. For polysilicon, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]