成材：淡季背景下钢价弱势运行

Group 1 - Report's industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Still treat steel as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - From January to May 2025, China exported 471.7 million tons of steel billets, 165.4 million tons of steel bars, and 459.3 million tons of wire rods, with year - on - year increases of 355 million tons, 78 million tons, and 131.6 million tons respectively, a total increase of 565 million tons [2] - On June 23, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The average profit was - 133 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in June will reach 2 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Among them, new energy retail sales are expected to reach 1.1 million, and the penetration rate will rebound to about 55% [2] - The prices of finished steel products rose and then fell yesterday, with small cross - star candlesticks for rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing little fluctuation. Market drivers are weak, and weak demand still exerts pressure on prices [2] - Later, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [3]