关注马士基7月第二周报价情况，7月下半月目前仍有挺价预期-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may have a limited direct impact on the global container shipping market, but the conflict between Iran and Israel could potentially affect the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for oil transportation [2][3]. - The supply and demand in the US - bound routes have both increased. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the demand on the Sino - US routes has risen rapidly, and carriers are actively restoring capacity. The freight rates on the Shanghai - to - East and West US routes have declined from their high levels [2]. - The freight rates on the Shanghai - to - European routes are undergoing adjustments. The 7 - month upper - half freight rates are being corrected, and the 8 - month contract is in a game over the peak time of the freight rates. It is necessary to pay attention to Maersk's quotes in the second week of July [1][5]. - The container shipping industry is still in a year of high vessel deliveries in 2025, which may put pressure on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of June 23, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 95,679 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 90,549 lots. The closing prices of different contracts were as follows: EC2602 at 1372.10, EC2604 at 1209.80, EC2506 at 1883.00, EC2508 at 1875.00, EC2510 at 1370.00, and EC2512 at 1530.10 [6]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes for different alliances on the Shanghai - to - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price in the 26th week was 1710/2880, and in the first week of July, it was 1885/3150. Different carriers' quotes for different time periods also show differences [1]. - The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are provided. On June 20, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - to - Europe) was 1835.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - to - West US) was 2772.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - to - East US) was 5352.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - to - Europe) was 1937.14 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - to - West US) was 2083.46 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. As of June 20, 2025, 38 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [6]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - to - European base port in July was 279,500 TEU, and in August, it was 271,300 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in July, including 5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the PA Alliance [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The conflict between Iran and Israel may affect the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small, it is a key node for global oil trade [2][3]. - The carriers on the Sino - US routes are actively restoring capacity. The remaining capacity in the last week of June on the Shanghai - to - East and West US routes was 372,000 TEU, the average weekly capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in July was 350,000 TEU [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the Sino - US routes has increased due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the freight rates have first risen and then declined [2]. - The peak time of the Shanghai - to - European route freight rates in 2025 is unclear. Historically, in most years after 2017, the freight rates on the Shanghai - to - European base port route peaked around Week 34 [5].