国泰君安期货所长早读-20250624

General Information - Report Date: June 24, 2025 [2][6][14] - Report Provider: Guotai Junan Futures [2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has been agreed upon, which will have a significant impact on the prices of commodities such as crude oil and precious metals [7][24][30][32][35][39] - Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to the geopolitical cooling, and the upward trend may end, but short - term positives may limit the decline speed [8][9] - Different commodities have different trends, such as silver continuing to rise, copper being supported by inventory reduction, etc. [16][25] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Geopolitical cooling led to a sharp drop in prices, with both Brent and WTI falling below $70/barrel, a cumulative decline of over 10% from the previous high [8] - The upward trend may end, and the market may shift from an upward trend to a wide - range shock and then a downward trend. It is recommended to clear long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [8][9] Gold and Silver - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire situation. Gold trend strength is - 1 [16][23] - Silver: Continuing to rise. Silver trend strength is - 1 [16][23] Copper - Inventory reduction supports the price. Copper trend strength is 1 [16][25][27] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: Waiting for direction selection, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] - Alumina: Range - bound, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] - Aluminum Alloy: Under pressure, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] Zinc - Short - term reduction in positions leads to an upward movement, trend strength is 0 [16][31][32] Lead - Medium - term is relatively strong, trend strength is 0 [16][34][35] Tin - Tight current situation but weak expectations, trend strength is 0 [16][37][40] Stainless Steel and Nickel - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weakly marginal, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel trend strength is 0 [16][42][45] - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel ore end is loose, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity. Nickel trend strength is 0 [16][42][45] Carbonate Lithium - Weakly oscillating, and the warehouse receipt reduction continues. Carbonate lithium trend strength is 0 [16][46][48] Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon: The idea is mainly to short on rallies. Polysilicon trend strength is - 1 [16][50][52] - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the changes in warehouse receipts. Industrial silicon trend strength is 0 [16][50][52] Iron Ore - Expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating within a range. Iron ore trend strength is 0 [16][53] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation. Rebar trend strength is 0 [16][55][58] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range oscillation. Hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [16][56][58] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range oscillation. Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0 [16][59][61] - Silicomanganese: Ore quotes are firm, wide - range oscillation. Silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [16][59][61] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, wide - range oscillation. Coke trend strength is 0 [16][62][64] - Coking Coal: Wide - range oscillation. Coking coal trend strength is 0 [16][62][64] Steam Coal - Demand is yet to be released, wide - range oscillation. Steam coal trend strength is 0 [16][66][69]