液化气：霍尔木兹海峡的炮火，正在改写LPG贸易版图

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The conflict between Israel and Iran has made the geopolitical situation in the Middle East more unstable. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, the harassment of ships by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen has already disrupted global energy trade. The Strait of Hormuz is the risk - pricing center for the global LPG market, and any threat to the waterway will amplify price fluctuations, changing the LPG trade pattern. The actual impact needs to be dynamically evaluated based on four variables: conflict duration, international response, global supply - demand fundamentals, and regional supply disruptions and domestic factors in China [1][2][38][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iran Liquefied Petroleum Gas Facilities Introduction - Over 90% of Iran's LPG is produced from the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, with on - shore processing bases concentrated in Asaluyeh Industrial City. Asaluyeh Port undertakes about 70% of Iran's LPG exports and is the main source of China's imports. The Chabahar Port currently cannot replace the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The Strait of Hormuz is the only outlet from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Iran controls major islands in the strait and has an important port, Bandar Abbas [5]. - Since 2018, China has been the main destination for Iran's energy - chemical product exports, accounting for nearly 95% of the receiving volume in 2025 [12]. China's Import of Iranian LPG Overview - In recent years, the US has long occupied 35% - 40% of China's LPG import market share, but due to the expected intensification of the Sino - US trade war tariff escalation in 2025 and the diversion of propane raw materials by US ethane cracking plants, its exports to China are expected to decrease by 15% - 20%. Iran, as the largest potential LPG supplier in the Middle East, has geographical, cost, and supply - chain advantages. If the Sino - US trade conflict intensifies, Iran's idle export potential of 200 - 300 tons/year may be activated. If the US raises tariffs on LPG exports to China in April 2025, Iran's share in China's supply may rise from the current 10% to 15% - 18% [13][14]. Three Scenario Assumptions of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Scenario 1: Complete Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's LPG shipments to China will drop to nearly zero. Physical supply will be interrupted, and global supply panic will occur. China will seek alternative sources, and freight and insurance costs will skyrocket. China's imported LPG price may soar by 30% - 50% in the short term, and domestic LPG prices may rise by 15% - 30%. Global LPG prices will generally rise significantly [28][29][30][31]. Scenario 2: Continuous Harassment of Passing Ships - Iran's LPG shipments to China will significantly decrease by about 20% - 50%. The main reasons include risk aversion by shipowners/tenants, voyage delays, increased insurance costs, and Iran's reduced export willingness/ability. China's imported LPG price will rise by 10% - 25%, and domestic prices will rise by 5% - 12.5%. Other alternative source prices will also increase [28][32][34]. Scenario 3: Normal Navigation of the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's LPG shipments to China will maintain normal levels or fluctuate according to market fundamentals. LPG prices will be driven by fundamentals, with stable market sentiment and prices fluctuating within a normal range [28][35][36]. Summary The Strait of Hormuz determines Iran's LPG supply capacity. Complete blockade will cause a supply crisis and price surge in the Asian market, while continuous harassment will push up LPG prices in the long term. China, as the largest importer, will bear the brunt of price increases. The actual impact needs to be evaluated based on four variables [38][39].