甲醇日报：甲醇高开低走，关注伊朗装置恢复进度-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main driver of the methanol market lies in the fluctuations of crude oil prices at the upstream cost end. After the US struck Iran, the oil price declined, indicating that the market believes the most intense expectations have been fulfilled, and there is limited room for further intensification. The market has started to trade on the expectation of Iran's plant resumption, leading to a high - opening and low - closing trend in the methanol futures market. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's plant resumption. [3] - Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still low, and the port basis remains strong. There are concerns in the market about the loss - induced maintenance of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) plants that rely on imported methanol at ports. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will materialize. [3] - In the inland region, the operating rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, and the inventory accumulation rate of inland factories is still slow, indicating a certain resilience in inland demand. However, the high price difference between ports and inland areas is a factor dragging down the methanol price from reaching a peak. [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads are presented, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China. [26][31][32] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol plants in China (including integrated plants). [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures present various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions. [39][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. [45][55]