新能源及有色金属日报：5月光伏抢装超预期，关注后续装机持续性-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The photovoltaic rush in May exceeded expectations, potentially pre - consuming a significant amount of the second - half installation demand. As a result, the subsequent consumer side may be difficult to sustain, and the market may continue to be weak. For industrial silicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis: On June 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2509 opened at 7375 yuan/ton and closed at 7420 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 303119 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with individual silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreasing, while those in Tianjin, Xinjiang, and other regions remained unchanged [1]. - Supply - demand Situation: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Although the explicit inventory has decreased due to many warehouse receipt cancellations recently, the total inventory is accumulating. The consumption side is average, with downstream enterprises making rigid purchases [1][2]. - Strategy: It is expected that the market will oscillate at the bottom. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis: On June 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 31200 yuan/ton and closing at 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 78183 lots, and the trading volume was 88450 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the inventories of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 2.94% week - on - week, while the silicon wafer output decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - Price of Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with a slight increase in the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components [3][5]. - Strategy: The market is mainly trading on the weak expectation of subsequent installations and the production increase of silicon material factories. The market may continue to be weak. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range and sell on rallies for hedging [6].