铁矿石：市场情绪缓和，矿价偏强运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term domestic macro - expectations have strengthened. The market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but with weak pressure. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - The equity and commodity markets were relatively strong yesterday. The market anticipated the easing of the Middle - East situation, and the sentiment improved. The black - series commodities rose collectively. The demand for finished products showed off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing better than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal increments, and the carbon element gave way to the iron element. The blast - furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand for iron ore remained relatively high, supporting the price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared to the end of May, while the futures price was relatively stable [3]. Supply - This week (Monday), the overseas ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia and Brazil reached the same - period high, and the arrival volume also increased significantly month - on - month. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Australian mines BHP and FMG are rushing to meet their fiscal - year targets. It is expected that the overseas ore shipments will continue to rise steadily. Due to the significant increase in shipments in late May, the actual domestic supply is expected to increase significantly, and the supporting strength of the supply side will weaken marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the investment in non - mainstream mines (Onslow project) [3]. Demand - The domestic molten iron output ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The average daily molten iron output this period was 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). Currently, the profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be resilient, and the high demand will support the price [3]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production at some steel mills. Steel mills mainly purchased on - demand due to the weak demand expectations. The port inventory decreased slightly this period due to the month - on - month decline in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly in the later period, but the pressure is weak due to the high demand [4]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is 695 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton, and the price range of the overseas FE07 contract is 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [5].