新能源及有色金属日报：升贴水报价进一步走低，铜价维持震荡格局-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to be tight due to the reverse invoicing policy. The demand outlook is not optimistic, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, macro factors are variable, which may highlight the precious metal attribute of copper. Therefore, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,480 yuan/ton and closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, a 0.38% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,450 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: The spot trading sentiment of Shanghai copper was weak. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper dropped to 60 - 80 yuan/ton, and that of good copper to 100 yuan/ton. Non - registered copper was at a discount of 70 - 40 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of shipping and collecting payments, the spot premium is expected to decline further [2]. - Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: Trump announced that Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire agreement. Iran will start the cease - fire first, and Israel will follow 12 hours later. The war will end officially after 24 hours, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices. In China, as of the end of May, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [3]. - Mine End: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura to fund the expansion of its Eloise copper processing plant. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon to provide integrated logistics solutions for its copper business in South Australia, which is expected to replace about 13 million kilometers of truck transportation annually [4]. - Smelting and Import: Ningbo Jintian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo this year, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. From January to May, the value of copper imports from Africa in Ningbo reached 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8%. In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53% [5]. - Consumption: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 73.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.04 percentage points [6]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,125 tons to 95,875 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 8,354 tons to 25,528 tons. On June 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.296 million tons, a decrease of 163,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Arbitrage: On hold [7]. - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7].