新装置顺利投产，供应端压力渐增

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - New devices such as the 500,000 - ton/year PP device of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 4th line and the 450,000 - ton/year PE device of Yulong Petrochemical have been successfully put into production, and the future supply of polyolefins is on the rise [2] - Due to the intensifying geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran, the prices of crude oil and propane are running strongly, and the cost - side support for polyolefins has been significantly enhanced [2] - The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, with weakening demand, and it is expected to maintain a low operating load; the packaging film industry has a low year - on - year operating rate, the plastic weaving industry's operating rate is decreasing, terminal inventory - building willingness is low, and procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [2] - Polyolefin production enterprise inventories are slightly accumulating, while middle - stream trader inventories are decreasing. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is strong uncertainty in the macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate is 78.7% (- 0.5%), and the oil - based production profit is - 264.8 yuan/ton (+ 121.8); for PP, the operating rate is 79.6% (+ 0.9%), the oil - based production profit is - 664.8 yuan/ton (+ 121.8), and the PDH - based production profit is - 192.8 yuan/ton (- 47.1) [1][18][19] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures involve the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [27][34][35] 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is 26.6 yuan/ton (- 20.1), PP import profit is - 306.4 yuan/ton (+ 9.9), and PP export profit is - 4.7 US dollars/ton (- 1.2) [1][39][51] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (- 0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+ 0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (- 0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0%) [1][61][64] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Production enterprise inventories are slightly accumulating, and middle - stream trader inventories are decreasing [2]