因势利导，进退有度

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) trend ratings for treasury bonds are all "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation is favorable for treasury bonds, with the bullish sentiment more obvious in the first half of the second half of the year, but the potential for further bullishness is limited. The market is expected to experience fluctuations, and investors are advised to adopt appropriate trading strategies [1][3][64] - Monetary policy is moderately loose, but the central bank may warn about interest - rate risks. Market sentiment is more cautious, and there are differences in institutional behavior and bond valuations compared to previous years, which limit the upward space of the bond market [2][65][88] - The bond market trend in the second half of the year is divided into three stages. Investment strategies include unilateral band operations, cross - variety strategies, and positive - arbitrage strategies for short - term varieties [3][92][96] Summary by Directory 1. 2025Q1 Treasury Bond Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, treasury bond futures went from weak to strong and then to narrow - range oscillation, experiencing three stages: decline from the beginning of the year to mid - March, rise from late March to early April, and narrow - range oscillation from mid - April to mid - June [15] - The yield curve first flattened and then oscillated. The basis of medium - and short - term varieties gradually returned to normal from a low level, while the basis of TL did not deviate significantly from the seasonal level [18] - The bond market showed new features this year, such as being insensitive to domestic economic fundamentals but sensitive to trade frictions, with the central bank having stronger regulatory ability, persistent negative carry for short - term varieties, and institutional behavior causing occasional disturbances [21] 2. Fiscal and Fundamental Aspects: The Trade War is Complex, and Domestic Low - Volatility Will Continue - Trade War is Long - Term, Complex, and Has a "Stagflation" Effect: The trade war is a long - term measure for the US to address its credit crisis. It is complex in its progress, and high tariffs will lead the US into a stagflation environment [24][27][31] - Export Decline Pressure Becomes Apparent, and Domestic Demand Weakening Pressure Increases: Trade frictions lead to a decline in overseas demand, which in turn reduces China's export growth. Domestic demand also faces challenges, especially in the real estate market, and consumption and private investment are also under pressure. Fiscal support is crucial for stabilizing demand [33][42][54] - Fiscal Policy Supports the Economy, and Domestic Macroeconomy Runs with Low Volatility: The proportion of functional finance is increasing. Fiscal policy should be moderately proactive, with a higher probability of quasi - fiscal policies. Fiscal policy will support economic growth, but the supply - demand imbalance will persist, and inflation will remain low [55][58][63] 3. Monetary Policy and Bond Market Valuation: Similar Policy Rhythms, Different Mindsets and Valuations - Exchange - Rate Depreciation Pressure Eases, and Monetary Policy is Moderately Loose: The RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure has significantly eased. Monetary policy is moderately loose, with a high probability of a 10BP interest - rate cut in August - September. The central bank may warn about long - term interest - rate risks [65][66][73] - Market Mindset, Institutional Behavior, and Bond Valuations Differ from Previous Years: The market mindset is more cautious. Institutional behavior is affected by "liability shortage," and bond valuations are high, which limit the upward space of the bond market [78][81][87] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy: Actively Explore Futures Strategies - Market Rhythm: Gradually Accelerate, Then Decline: The bond market in the second half of the year is expected to go through three stages: strengthening from July - August, a high probability of decline from September - October, and slow strengthening from November - December [92][93] - Strategy Analysis: Band - Operation Thinking, Explore Futures Strategies: Unilateral strategies suggest that allocation portfolios should buy mid - term long positions on dips, and trading portfolios should conduct band operations. Cross - variety strategies recommend paying attention to the strategy of going long on 2TS and short on T. Positive - arbitrage strategies suggest seizing the tail - end opportunities of short - term varieties. Hedging strategies recommend paying attention to short - hedging strategies from September - October [96][98][103]