Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - Logic Analysis: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - Logic Analysis: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - Trading Strategy: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - Logic Analysis: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - Trading Strategy: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - Logic Analysis: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - Trading Strategy: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - Logic Analysis: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - Trading Strategy: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - Logic Analysis: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - Trading Strategy: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - Logic Analysis: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - Trading Strategy: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - Market Review: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - Logic Analysis: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - Trading Strategy: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - Logic Analysis: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - Trading Strategy: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - Logic Analysis: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - Trading Strategy: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC Market Review: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - PVC Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - Caustic Soda Logic Analysis: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - Market Review: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - Trading Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - Trading Strategy: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - Logic Analysis: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - Trading Strategy: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - Market Review: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - Market Review: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - Logic Analysis: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - Logic Analysis: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - Market Review: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - Logic Analysis: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5SP2509 - 2NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Market Review: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - Logic Analysis: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - Logic Analysis: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250624
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-24 04:23