新能源及有色金属日报：下游备货积极性较差，铅价仍陷震荡格局-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - As the lead battery consumption peak season in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton, closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 26,206 lots, down 672 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 28,273 lots, down 5,834 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,825 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,925 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The lead price in the futures market was weak and volatile. In different regions, the quotation methods and discounts or premiums varied, and the downstream maintained rigid demand procurement with poor enthusiasm for stocking at low prices [2] Inventory - On June 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, down 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 23, the LME lead inventory was 281,025 tons, down 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for lead is neutral. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The arbitrage strategy is to be postponed [4]