煤焦日报-20250624

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with a cumulative reduction of 220 yuan/ton for wet-quenched coke and 240 yuan/ton for dry-quenched coke. Steel has entered the off-season, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel mills have a resumption expectation, and their production enthusiasm is good, with a slight increase in molten iron output. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are still cautious in raw material procurement. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, the coke enterprise's operation has decreased slightly, and after the fourth round of price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises has narrowed, and the intensity of production reduction and maintenance is expected to increase. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate. In terms of coking coal supply, recently, due to stricter safety inspections and the arrival of environmental protection inspection teams, some coal mines in Changzhi and Linfen, Shanxi have stopped production, and the supply has tightened marginally. As the coal price drops to a low level, the signing and sales of coal mines have improved, and coke enterprises have appropriately purchased high-cost performance resources, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized. The inventory of coal mines has begun to decline, and the CR coking coal production area inventory index of China Coal Resources Network has dropped from 104.95 to 100.43. The online auction situation has improved, with a trading volume of 31.9 million tons and a non - successful bid rate of 9.4% yesterday. The price of Mongolian coal has fallen below the cost line, and the port clearance remains at a low level. The spot market of coking coal fluctuates weakly, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Coke Futures: For example, J2601 closed at 1424.0 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan from the previous day; J2605 closed at 1450.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as J01 - J05 changing from - 23.5 to - 26.0 [2]. - Coking Coal Futures: JM2601 closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, up 22.0 yuan; JM2605 closed at 866.0 yuan/ton, up 18.0 yuan. Spreads like JM01 - JM05 changed from - 26.5 to - 55.0 [2]. - Coke Spot: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze all decreased. For example, the Xingtai ex - factory price dropped to 1260 yuan/ton [2]. - Coking Coal Spot: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Shanxi's optimal delivery warehouse receipt decreased to 764 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - Coke Fundamentals: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.57 to 242.2, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.15 to 47.4, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. The inventory of full - sample independent coking plants decreased by 10.1 to 115.6, with a month - on - month decrease of - 8.06% [2]. - Coking Coal Fundamentals: The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants increased by 3.5 to 51.0, with a month - on - month increase of 6.70%. The inventory of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 14.1 to 237.4, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.60% [2]. Important News - In May 2025, China's imports of coking coal from Mongolia and Russia decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The imports from Mongolia were 434.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.1%; the imports from Russia were 188.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.5% [4]. - On June 23, the national main port iron ore trading volume increased by 52.1% month - on - month to 118.20 million tons, and the trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders increased by 5.6% month - on - month to 10.30 million tons [5]. - On June 23, the coke market price was weakly operating, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong reduced the purchase price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton [5]. Trading Strategy - Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal supply has tightened marginally, and the spot market fluctuates weakly, while the futures market is expected to fluctuate [6].