周度经济观察：低通胀下的股债配置-20250624

Economic Performance - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, a significant drop of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first negative growth since 2024[4] - Government fund income in May fell by 7.8% year-on-year, a decline of 15.5 percentage points from the previous month[5] Fiscal Policy and Market Impact - The decline in fiscal growth in May is expected to negatively impact total demand, with potential economic downtrends due to reduced exports and fiscal spending[6] - Government fund expenditure growth in May was 9.1%, down 35.2 percentage points from April, indicating a significant reduction in fiscal strength[6] - The low inflation environment is likely to persist in the short term, adversely affecting corporate profits, household income, and consumption[11] Asset Allocation Insights - The bond market is expected to see yields decline further in a low inflation environment, while dividend stocks continue to outperform[10] - The current liquidity in the financial market is relatively abundant, driven by strong bank credit lending intentions[11] - The performance of different asset classes reflects market pricing in a low inflation environment, with a focus on policy responses to inflation[10] Geopolitical and Policy Considerations - Geopolitical risks and unexpected policy changes remain significant risk factors for the economic outlook[3] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained the federal funds target rate, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties[15]