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集运日报:原油大跌7%,以伊停火消息放出,盘面昨日高开低走,符合日报预期,近期博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250624
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-06-24 05:23

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily shipping container transportation report released on June 24, 2025, focusing on market trends and related factors in the shipping industry [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Crude oil prices dropped by 7%, and the market opened high and closed low. The game in the near - term is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1] - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [1] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [1] - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [1] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, the service PMI was 52.3, and the composite PMI was 52.1 [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategies - The European route has strong macro - attributes, and the game is difficult. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price support. The Sino - US second - round talks have no substantial progress, and the spot market price range is set. The market is prone to fall and difficult to rise [2] - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental shift, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000, and stop losses have been recommended for long positions [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [2] Group 4: Geopolitical and Other Factors - The Middle East situation continues to deteriorate. Iran plans to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US - West route freight rate has dropped rapidly, and short - selling sentiment has risen [2] - On June 23, Iran launched the 21st round of the "True Promise - 3" operation against Israel, targeting military targets and military support centers in the north - south direction of the Jordan River West Bank centered on Haifa and Tel Aviv [3] - Goldman Sachs is worried about the possible supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil has risen 20.6% this month to $76.9 per barrel. If the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is reduced by half in the first month and remains 10% lower in the next 11 months, the Brent crude oil price may briefly reach a peak of $110 per barrel [3]