烧碱：短期低位不宜追空

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the report's investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term spot price of caustic soda is under pressure and the trend remains weak due to factors such as alumina price cuts and reduced downstream and trader inventory demand [2] - Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy in the second half of the year, but currently, the large discount of the main contract price to the spot limits the short - term further decline space [2] - Caustic soda has room for rebound, with profit exceeding 1,000 yuan/ton in seasonal peak seasons in the past three years due to short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2] - In the second half of the year, focus on inventory build - up in alumina, export directions, and non - aluminum sector's pre - holiday stocking. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, a shortage of caustic soda is likely [2] - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, and the logic of shorting profit cannot be disproven. One can participate in positive spreads at the right time, focusing on downstream inventory build - up rhythm [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2,272 yuan/ton. The cheapest deliverable price in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2,438 yuan/ton, and the basis is 166 yuan/ton [1] - In Shandong, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 780 yuan/ton, a 3.7% decrease from the previous period. The purchase price of the main downstream alumina has been reduced by 20 to 760 yuan/ton, leading to a price drop in Shandong. The export price of high - strength caustic soda has declined, and major factories have poor new order sign - ups and are selling at reduced prices [1] Market Condition Analysis - The decline in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the price cut by Shandong alumina enterprises. When there is an expectation of spot price cuts, downstream and trader inventory demand slows down, intensifying the negative market feedback. The pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery increases, and the logic of near - month premium cannot support the market [2] - A large drop in crude oil may reverse the previous long - PVC short - caustic soda positions [2] Strategy - The future trend of caustic soda will have a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. After the discount is filled, the price will continue to be under pressure. One can participate in positive spreads at the right time, with the core being to focus on downstream inventory build - up rhythm [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]