Bank of China Securities·2025-06-24 05:45Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The Middle East tensions have led to increased oil shipping rates and insurance premiums, while the sentiment in the capesize market has cooled significantly, resulting in a sharp decline in daily charter rates [13][14] - Cathay Pacific's passenger volume from January to May 2025 increased by 28.4% compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable rise in international travel [15][16] - SF Express reported a revenue increase of 11.34% in May 2025, with domestic express delivery volume growing by 20.1% year-on-year [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has triggered a chain reaction in the oil shipping market, with VLCC average daily charter rates rising to nearly $55,000, reflecting a more than 100% week-on-week increase [13] - Cathay Pacific's passenger volume for May 2025 increased by 36.1% year-on-year, indicating strong recovery in air travel demand [15][16] - SF Express achieved a total revenue of CNY 25.113 billion in May 2025, marking an 11.34% increase year-on-year [22] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking 2.1 Air Logistics - The air cargo price index for Shanghai outbound flights was reported at 4,475 points, down 6.4% year-on-year [25] - Domestic cargo flights decreased by 6.76% year-on-year in May 2025, while international flights increased by 26.98% [31] 2.2 Shipping Ports - The SCFI index for Shanghai's export container shipping was reported at 1,869.59 points, down 10.47% week-on-week and down 46.21% year-on-year [39] - The total cargo throughput at national ports reached 5.755 billion tons in the first four months of 2025, a 3.7% year-on-year increase [50] 2.3 Express Logistics - In May 2025, the express delivery volume reached 17.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.20% [52] - The total express delivery volume from January to May 2025 was 78.77 billion pieces, reflecting a 20.1% year-on-year growth [23]