聚酯数据日报-20250624

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran and the conflict between Israel and other factors have led to concerns in the market, with expectations of continued oil price increases and the chemical industry as a whole following suit [2]. - PTA is expected to see inventory reduction in the future, and the actions of mainstream factories to increase basis sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. The polyester industry has rapidly reduced inventory recently, and the market's purchasing willingness has increased due to rising oil prices [2]. - For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, the conflict has led to rising ethylene prices, strengthening the cost - side. Ethylene glycol continues the inventory reduction rhythm, but the recovery of coal - based ethylene glycol device loads exerts pressure on the market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil rose from 566.6 yuan/barrel on June 20, 2025, to 574.5 yuan/barrel on June 23, 2025, an increase of 7.9 yuan/barrel [2]. - PX: CFR China PX increased from 896 to 899, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 250 to 253 [2]. - PTA: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4978 yuan/ton to 5012 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased from 5275 yuan/ton to 5260 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee increased from 390.3 yuan/ton to 393.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased from 128.3 yuan/ton to 145.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The MEG主力期价 remained unchanged at 4501 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased slightly from (138.46) to (138.65), and the MEG internal price increased from 4594 to 4597 [2]. - Polyester Products: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and semi - bright chips all increased to varying degrees, and the cash flows of most products improved [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX: The operating rate remained at 82.70% [2]. - PTA: The operating rate remained at 78.56% [2]. - MEG: The operating rate increased from 57.91% to 58.33%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Polyester Load: It decreased slightly from 90.16% to 90.10% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device has recently shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].