社会服务行业双周报：暑期出行热度渐起，5月社零消费增速良好-20250624

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating expectations for the industry index to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [2][49]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 3.30% in the first two trading weeks of June 2025, ranking 19th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.54 percentage points [2][13]. - With the summer travel season approaching, there is an anticipated increase in consumer spending, supported by positive consumption data from May, which showed a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in retail sales, the highest since January 2024 [5][30]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in travel demand, particularly for family trips, with a projected 76% increase in outbound travel to Europe and notable growth in less common destinations [5][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was below the market average, with all sub-sectors, including tourism retail and education, experiencing declines [15][19]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 30.91 times, which is at the 20.62% historical percentile, compared to the CSI 300's PE of 12.12 times at the 45.62% historical percentile [22][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, such as Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., and Songcheng Performance [5][42]. - It also recommends monitoring hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery, such as Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, as well as companies in the cross-border travel market like China Duty Free and Wangfujing [5][42].