2025年海外宏观中期展望：守得云开见月明

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The global narrative has shifted from "American exceptionalism" to "dollar system collapse," leading to increased asset volatility and a shift of global capital from U.S. assets to non-U.S. assets[1] - In the first half of 2025, three major disruptions altered the economic and asset operation logic, including changes in global narrative, uncertainty in Trump's tariff policies, and a shift from fiscal expansion optimism to debt risk concerns[4] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to rise to 6.4% in 2024, with government leverage reaching 121.5%[20] Group 2: U.S. Policy Outlook - U.S. trade, fiscal, and monetary policies are expected to become clearer in Q3 2025, although uncertainties remain due to Trump's unpredictable policies[4] - The new budget coordination bill is anticipated to be passed by July 2025, with potential fiscal deficits projected to reach $597 billion by 2027[34] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a focus on the September FOMC meeting for potential guidance[39] Group 3: Asset Market Predictions - U.S. equities are expected to continue their upward trend, with the S&P 500 recovering losses from earlier in the year, supported by advancements in artificial intelligence and favorable fiscal policies[6] - Non-U.S. equity markets are likely to benefit from a weaker dollar and the upward momentum of U.S. stocks, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares[6] - The capital expenditure cycle is nearing its peak, with a downturn anticipated in the second half of 2025 as the expansion phase concludes[48]