航运衍生品数据日报-20250624

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The market is in a state of oscillation. Spot prices are showing an upward trend, with shipping companies gradually increasing their quotes. The forward freight rates in Europe continue to rise, and it is expected that the upward trend will continue until mid - to late July. The freight rates on the US route in the futures market declined last week, while the European route did not follow the decline due to its own peak - season pattern. For the European route freight rates from July to August, there are three possible scenarios: the spill - over of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors. In terms of trading strategies, attention should be paid to the potential logic of the second scenario, and a far - month positive spread strategy should be formulated with reference to historical delivery data [8][9]. 3. Key Points by Section Freight Index Data - Spot Freight Index: The current values of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and the China Export Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) are 1870 and 1342 respectively, with the former down 10.47% and the latter up 8.00% compared to the previous values. The freight rates on different routes also show different trends, such as a significant decline on the US West and US East routes, and an increase on the European routes [4]. - Forward Freight Index: The current values of different forward contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) show fluctuations, with some contracts down and some up compared to the previous values. The positions of different contracts also change, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 month - to - month spreads are 505.0, - 160.1, and 320.3 respectively, with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [4]. Spot Market - In late June, leading airlines are eager to raise prices. The offline quotes of COSCO, CMA, ONE, MSC, Maersk, and HPL are different, and the European base - port quotes in late June have reached 2,800 - 3,200 US dollars/40 - foot container, with the upward trend expected to continue until mid - to late July. The July quotes of different shipping companies are also different, and Maersk has adjusted the freight rate to Rotterdam in early July [8]. Futures Market - Last week, the freight rates on the US route in the futures market declined, while the European route did not follow the decline due to its peak - season pattern. The European route futures show a "front - running" characteristic, and there are three scenarios for the European route freight rates from July to August [8]. Trading Strategy - Currently, the ECO8 futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the potential logic of the second scenario. A far - month positive spread strategy should be formulated with reference to historical delivery data, and the 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [9][10].