工程机械行业2025年5月月报：5月挖掘机内销短期承压，国际化趋势支撑整体销量持续增长-20250624

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic excavator sales in May 2025 are under short-term pressure due to low downstream operating conditions and earlier high sales in the year, which have somewhat exhausted future purchasing demand [2][3] - The report remains optimistic about the continuous growth in the replacement demand for construction machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement volume in the coming years, which is expected to support future excavator sales [3] - The government is expected to increase infrastructure investment, with a proposed issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government bonds, which will likely boost downstream equipment demand [4] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In the first five months of 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with domestic sales at 57,501 units, up 25.7%. However, May 2025 saw a total of 18,202 units sold, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, but domestic sales fell by 1.5% to 8,392 units [2][11] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, down 3.9% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a decline in operational activity [2] Export Trends - Excavator exports in the first five months of 2025 totaled 44,215 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with May exports at 9,810 units, up 5.4% [5][11] - The report highlights opportunities and challenges for machinery exports due to geopolitical factors and increasing demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [5] Electrification and Green Transition - Sales of electric loaders surged by 207.7% in the first five months of 2025, with an electrification rate of 20.7%, up 14.5 percentage points year-on-year. In May alone, sales increased by 121.2% [6][11] - The government’s push for green transformation and energy-saving initiatives is expected to accelerate the electrification of construction machinery [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading companies in the machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a positive long-term outlook for these firms [8]