可转债周报：全A指数或延续震荡，短期聚焦结构变化-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The full A - index may continue to fluctuate, and short - term focus should be on structural changes. The molecular end of the equity market has resistance to upward breakthroughs, but the slow slope is also relatively fully priced in. The denominator end has abundant on - and off - market liquidity. Without new variables, the equity market may continue to fluctuate in the second half of 2025 [2][28]. - The rotation speed of the equity structure has reached a high level, while the rotation intensity is relatively low. Strategies may focus more on trading in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to sectors with medium - to long - term narratives, low congestion, and low valuations, such as TMT [3][35]. - The convertible bond market declined slightly last week, and the valuation increased slightly. Only the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds were compressed [36][42]. - Tianyang Convertible Bond announced redemption last week, and 5 convertible bonds' boards of directors proposed downward revisions. The primary market saw Hengshuai Convertible Bond listed and 4 convertible bonds issued, with an expected issuance scale of about 16 billion yuan [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Full A - index May Continue to Fluctuate, Short - term Focus on Structural Changes 3.1.1 Equity Aggregate: Molecular End Pressure May Be Priced In, Denominator End Has Strong Support - The weak repair of profitability quality may continue. The EPS growth rate of listed companies has been in the process of bottom - up repair since the second half of 2024. In the second half of 2025, the profitability quality of listed companies may continue the weak repair trend [10]. - The downward adjustment of profit forecasts confirms that the weak repair has been priced in the equity market. Taking the CSI 300 components as a sample, the profit growth rate forecasts for the next three fiscal years have declined significantly twice [13]. - Off - market and on - market liquidity strongly support valuations. Since September 2024, the slow decline in medium - and long - term loan growth has deviated from the trend of equity market valuation repair, which can be partly explained by interest rate decline and the repair of the M1 - M2 growth rate difference. Policy measures are also important support [2][21]. - In the second half of the year, the molecular end has resistance to upward breakthroughs, and the denominator end has abundant liquidity. Without new variables, the equity market may continue to fluctuate [28]. 3.1.2 Equity Structure: Rotation Accelerates, Pay Attention to Sector Switching Opportunities - The rotation speed has reached a high level, while the rotation intensity is relatively low. The current rotation intensity is restricted by the broad - based index, but the rotation speed is fast, corresponding to a situation of high macro - uncertainty and a lack of a clear equity market main line [29]. - The absolute difference in performance among industries is not large, but the degree of differentiation is relatively high. Industry selection still has a significant impact on relative returns. Strategies may focus more on trading, and attention should be paid to sectors such as TMT [31][35]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Declined Slightly Last Week, Valuation Increased Slightly 3.2.1 Weekly Market Quotes: The Convertible Bond Market Declined Slightly, Most Sectors Performed Weakly - The major stock indices declined last week, and the convertible bond market was relatively resilient. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, most industries in the equity market declined, and the convertible bond market was also weak [36][40]. - Among popular concepts, most concepts declined last week [40]. 3.2.2 Valuation Performance: Only the Conversion Premium Rates of High - rated and Large - scale Convertible Bonds Were Compressed - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 119.42 yuan, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous Friday. The conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market's par - value fitting increased by 0.04 percentage points [42]. - Only the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds were compressed. The conversion premium rate of the AA - rating increased by 2.7 percentage points, and that of bonds below 3 billion yuan (including 3 billion) increased by 3.0 percentage points [42]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: Tianyang Convertible Bond Announced Redemption, CSRC's Approval of Convertible Bonds Is Acceptable 3.3.1 Terms: Tianyang Convertible Bond Announced Redemption Last Week, 5 Convertible Bonds' Boards of Directors Proposed Downward Revisions - As of June 20, Tianyang Convertible Bond announced redemption, and Nanyin Convertible Bond announced redemption arrangements. 5 convertible bonds' boards of directors proposed downward revisions, 14 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 9 convertible bonds announced expected triggering of downward revisions [4][62]. 3.3.2 Primary Market: Hengshuai Convertible Bond Listed Last Week, 4 Convertible Bonds Issued, Expected Issuance Scale of About 16 Billion Yuan - Hengshuai Convertible Bond was listed last week with a scale of 328 million yuan, and 4 convertible bonds were issued with a scale of 2.572 billion yuan [5][67]. - There were no new board proposals last week. As of June 20, 6 listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance with a proposed issuance scale of 13.448 billion yuan, and 4 listed companies passed the CSRC review with a total scale of 2.928 billion yuan [69][74][77].