低库存现实和需求?弱预期交织，有?延续震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly in the medium to long term, with short - term opportunities for positive spreads or cautious short - selling [5] - Aluminum: Short - term unilateral trading depends on inventory accumulation and geopolitical trends; medium - to long - term trading with a bearish bias [6] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, while the medium - to long - term has an upward expectation [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [11] - Lead: Oscillating [12] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to long term [15] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The reality of low inventories and the expectation of weakening demand in the non - ferrous metals industry are intertwined, leading to continued oscillations. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities, and cautiously consider short - term long positions in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the medium - to long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand prospects of base metals, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper - Information: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate, Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations, copper production increased, and copper inventories decreased significantly. The spot had a certain premium, and嘉能可 purchased Russian copper. Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [4] - Logic: Overseas economies may continue to weaken. Supply risks persist due to low processing fees, and demand is weakening in the off - season, but low inventories support copper prices [4] - Outlook: Copper prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Alumina - Information: Spot prices declined, warehouse receipts decreased, and an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang conducted a tender [4][5] - Logic: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the market is affected by various events. The market has gradually digested the news, and further upward movement requires an expansion of production cuts [5] - Outlook: Medium - to long - term oscillations are weak, and short - term positive spreads or cautious short - selling can be considered [5] Aluminum - Information: Aluminum prices and inventory data changed, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the US increased tariffs on household appliances [6] - Logic: The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has an impact on the regional balance, but the possibility and long - term ability are uncertain. Domestic inventory accumulation is increasing, and consumption may be under pressure in the second half of the year [6] - Outlook: Short - term trading depends on inventory and geopolitics, and medium - to long - term trading has a bearish bias [6] Aluminum Alloy - Information: Aluminum alloy prices and related data changed, and there were policies for new energy vehicle promotions and payment term commitments from car companies [7][10] - Logic: The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, but electrolytic aluminum prices drive the upward movement of waste aluminum and ADC12. In the medium - to long - term, ADC12 demand is expected to recover seasonally [7][8] - Outlook: Short - term spot is weak, and medium - to long - term has an upward expectation [8] Zinc - Information: Spot premiums, inventory changes, and Kipushi's production plan were reported [11] - Logic: Macro uncertainties exist, zinc ore supply is loosening, and demand is weakening in the off - season. Inventory accumulation is emerging, and the price support is weakening [11] - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [11] Lead - Information: Lead prices, inventory, and related data changed, and there were news about lead smelter maintenance and market supply and demand [12] - Logic: The cost support is stable, the supply is decreasing due to smelter maintenance and environmental inspections, and the demand is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the market is in a state of low supply and demand [12][13] - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [12] Nickel - Information: Nickel inventories increased, and there were news about mining cooperation, investment, and policy in the nickel industry [15] - Logic: The market is dominated by sentiment, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the supply is in excess, with high inventory pressure [15][19] - Outlook: Short - term wide - range oscillations, and short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to long - term [15] Stainless Steel - Information: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts, spot premiums, production data, and raw material prices changed [22] - Logic: Nickel and chromium prices are falling, and the supply and demand situation is complex. The inventory has a certain accumulation, but the structural oversupply pressure is limited [22] - Outlook: Short - term range oscillations, and attention should be paid to inventory and cost changes [22] Tin - Information: Tin warehouse receipts, inventory, and spot prices changed [23] - Logic: There is no obvious driving force currently. The supply in the main production areas has stabilized, and the domestic ore supply is tight, but the upward elasticity of prices is limited [23] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]