日度策略参考-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].