钴：刚果金出口禁令延期超预期，重视钴价和权益端弹性

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (initial rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for an additional three months exceeds market expectations, which anticipated a two-month extension [2][3] - The DRC dominates global cobalt supply, with an estimated production of 200,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of the total supply [3] - The current cobalt price is expected to enter a new upward cycle, potentially reaching levels between 280,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton due to inventory depletion and stricter regulatory measures in the DRC [3] Summary by Sections - Cobalt Export Ban: The DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended for three months due to sufficient market inventory, with the new expiration date set for September 22, 2025 [1] - Market Expectations: The market had anticipated a two-month extension based on the lack of clear guidance from the DRC government and the challenges in implementing a new export quota system [2] - Future Inventory and Pricing: The extension of the ban will test inventory levels, with major cobalt smelters likely facing production cuts in July and August, leading to a potential tightening of inventory and an increase in cobalt prices [3] - Investment Recommendations: Short-term focus on resource companies unaffected by the DRC export ban, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources; long-term focus on companies with significant resource reserves and production capacity, like Luoyang Molybdenum and flexible companies such as Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt [4]