特朗普称伊以或将停火，地缘溢价大幅降低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the risk of supply disruption has significantly weakened, but the arrival of the summer demand peak season may limit the speed of oil price decline. The Middle - East situation and the realization of the Northern Hemisphere's peak oil demand season in the next week need to be closely monitored [2][3]. - The market may fluctuate between supply disruptions and slowing demand, leading to high - level oscillations in oil prices. However, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of decline triggered by macro - economic factors. SC crude oil may show differentiation from international oil prices due to domestic factors, but the sharp drop at the close indicates a possible shift in market sentiment [69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Price Movements: As of June 23, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price rebounded slightly from 566.6 yuan/barrel to 574.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% increase, but dropped 5.65% to 538 yuan/barrel in the night session. WTI and Brent tumbled 9.2% and 9.82% to 67.23 dollars/barrel and 69.73 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened 559.35% to 10.22 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread widened 163.35% to 12.72 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread narrowed 23.78% to 2.5 dollars/barrel [2]. - Supply: Trump's post on social media stating that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease - fire led to the first round of crude oil price decline, with overnight prices dropping over 5% [2]. - Demand: Demand showed regional differentiation. India's crude oil imports in May increased 5.9% year - on - year to 23.3 million tons, and diesel and gasoline exports rose 9.7% and 13.7% respectively. However, demand concerns emerged in Europe and Southeast Asia. Refinery profits also varied, with China's diesel crack spread remaining at a high of 15 dollars/barrel in May, while the seasonal accumulation of US gasoline inventories pressured the crack spread [3]. - Inventory: The inventory dimension presented contradictory signals. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil at the Shanghai Energy Exchange remained at 4.029 million barrels, and those of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil were 0 tons and 22,800 tons respectively, suggesting limited physical delivery pressure in China [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed, with SC rising, and WTI and Brent falling. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI showed significant movements. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and API inventories decreased, while the strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. US refinery weekly operating rates and crude oil processing volumes declined [5]. - Fuel Oil: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil changed, with some rising and some falling. Spot prices of different fuel oil types also had various changes. Spreads such as the Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, and inventory in Singapore decreased [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On June 23, Venezuela's second - largest refinery shut down due to a power outage. Multiple foreign oil companies in Iraq evacuated staff, and Russia's Rosneft will suspend production at the Sakhalin - 1 project in August for maintenance. Thailand considered banning oil and electricity supply to Cambodia [7][8]. - Demand: Spain's national airline suspended flights to Doha on June 23, and Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport will resume limited flight operations [8]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil remained unchanged [9]. - Market Information: As of 2:30, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had different price changes. Brazil's national oil company did not plan to raise fuel prices for now. The LPG main contract fell 2.00%. Some companies' stock prices and project progress were also reported [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data from different regions [13][15][17] etc.