建材、建筑及基建公募REITs周报：周专题：浮法玻璃价格还有多少下跌空间？-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Glass prices have been on a downward trend, and the supply - side daily melting volume may accelerate contraction due to corporate losses. The demand is expected to be weak from July to August but may improve from September to December, with potential price increases and stock price rebounds similar to Q4 2024. However, glass prices may hit new lows due to the continuous decline in soda ash prices [3][27]. - There is high investor attention on special electronic cloth. Domestic leading enterprises are actively increasing supply capacity in response to the opportunity of domestic substitution. It is recommended to pay attention to companies such as Sinoma Science & Technology and Honghe Technology [3]. - It is recommended to pay attention to companies like Honglu Steel Structure, Qibin Group, Punan Co., Ltd., Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China National Chemical Engineering, China State Construction, Shanghai Harbor, Sinoma Science & Technology, and Keda Manufacturing [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - long Special Topic: How Much Room Is There for the Decline of Float Glass Prices? - Current Glass Price Position: As of June 20, 2025, the glass price has dropped to 1,190 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of about 470 yuan, approaching the lowest point of this cycle (1,160 yuan/ton in late September 2024). The current price is at the lowest 2% of the price range from 2017 to now [10]. - Reasons for Price Decline: The continuous decline in glass prices is mainly due to the continuous negative year - on - year growth rate of housing completion area since 2024, which reduces the consumption of architectural glass, and the continuous decline in soda ash prices, which lowers the production cost of glass [12]. - Stock Price Rebound in the Downturn: During the four - year downward cycle of glass stock prices, there are still rebound opportunities. From September to October 2024, the stock price of Qibin Group rebounded by 40% - 50%, partly due to the market's rise and partly due to the rebound of glass prices [17]. - Supply - Side Contraction and Price Rebound Potential: If glass prices continue to be sluggish or decline, corporate losses may accelerate the contraction of the supply - side daily melting volume. The demand is expected to be weak from July to August, but the supply - demand pattern may improve from September to December, with potential price increases and stock price rebounds [27]. - Risk of New Price Lows: Considering the decline in soda ash prices, the current glass price may be about 108 yuan lower than the low point, and glass prices may hit new lows in this downward cycle [27]. 2. Profit Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies No specific content about profit forecast and valuation is provided other than the table title. 3. Weekly Market Review - Building and Building Materials Sub - sectors: The report shows the weekly price changes of various sub - sectors in the building and building materials industries, but specific analysis is not provided [33]. - Infrastructure Public REITs: The report lists the weekly market conditions of multiple infrastructure public REITs, including closing prices, 52 - week highs and lows, weekly, monthly, year - to - date, 250 - day, and IPO - to - date price changes [38][39]. 4. Aggregate Data Tracking - Real Estate Data: It includes data on real estate new construction, construction, completion, sales area cumulative year - on - year, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, infrastructure investment growth rate, and the quarterly new contract signing situation of eight major construction central enterprises [41][85]. - Special Bond Issuance: It shows data on the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new and replacement special bonds [87][91]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Cement Data: It includes national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement - coal price difference index, cement inventory ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [98][104]. - Float Glass Data: It includes glass spot and futures prices, glass inventory, and glass daily melting volume [104][113]. - Photovoltaic Glass Data: It includes photovoltaic glass inventory, soda ash price, 2mm photovoltaic glass price, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume [112][113]. - Glass Fiber Data: It includes prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [116][128]. - Carbon Fiber Data: It includes carbon fiber average price, raw silk price, production, inventory, start - up rate, cost, gross profit, and gross profit margin [125][134]. - Magnesia and Alumina Prices: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [137][139]. - Upstream Raw Material Prices: It includes prices of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, HDPE, acrylic acid, and titanium dioxide [142][155]. - Physical Workload Data: It includes high - machine rental rate, excavator monthly working hours, and asphalt average start - up rate [150][156].