技术分析行业指数简评：能源金属板块短线技术条件渐次向好，目前仍处相对低位

Core Viewpoints - The energy metals sector has broken through multiple significant resistance levels, emerging from a medium-term downtrend formed over the past two years and is now above a long-term downtrend line that has persisted for four years. Compared to historical highs, the index remains at a relatively low level. The index has formed a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern over the past two years, solidifying its base. Currently, the index is approaching the neckline resistance of the "head and shoulders" pattern, which is also a convergence zone of multiple short-term resistances, indicating potential volatility due to the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, the short-term technical conditions of the index are gradually improving, and after appropriate fluctuations, breaking through the neckline and nearby resistances is likely. Once the neckline and surrounding resistances are effectively breached, the upward space between the index and historical highs may open up [1]. Energy Metals Sector Analysis - The energy metals sector has broken through multiple important resistance levels. On June 23, 2025, the sector closed with a long bullish candlestick, breaking through the top resistance of a trading range that had formed over 40 trading days, the 555-day long-term moving average resistance, and the medium-term downtrend line formed by two highs in November 2024 and March 2025. The index is now above the long-term downtrend line formed by the highs in September 2021 and July 2022, indicating a reversal of the long-term downtrend that has persisted since the historical high in September 2021 [2][4][8]. - The short-term technical conditions of the index are gradually improving. On June 23, 2025, the index surged with volume that was approximately double that of the previous trading day, exceeding the single-day volume of the past 50 trading days. Currently, the 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, trending upwards. The index is above the weekly moving average system, and although the short-term weekly moving averages have not yet formed a bullish arrangement, the index is above the 20-week moving average, with the 5-week moving average having crossed above the 10-week moving average, both trending upwards. The 60-week moving average has also begun to trend upwards, indicating positive signs in the weekly moving averages. The daily KDJ and MACD indicators are in a bullish crossover, and there is a cross-cycle bullish crossover among the daily, weekly, and monthly MACD indicators, suggesting favorable short-term technical indicators [2][6]. - The index remains at a relatively low level, with a solidified base and significant upward potential. Since the historical high in September 2021, the index has experienced a decline of over 80% by June 23, 2025, accumulating buying power for a potential rebound. The index has broken through the long-term downtrend line formed by the highs in September 2021 and July 2022, reversing the long-standing downtrend. Since August 2023, the index has been constructing a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern over the past two years, with the "head" being a double bottom. The index is currently approaching the neckline resistance, and if it effectively breaks through this level, there is significant upward potential towards the historical high in September 2021 [2][8]. - The index is currently under multiple short-term resistance levels, indicating potential volatility in the short term. Although the index has broken through multiple important resistances, there are still short-term resistances that need to be overcome. The index is at the neckline resistance, which is also a previous high point and a Fibonacci retracement level of 0.191. Due to the multiple resistance levels, there may be short-term fluctuations as bulls and bears contend. However, the volume, price, indicators, and trends are gradually improving, and after sufficient fluctuations, breaking through the neckline and nearby resistances is likely. Once these resistances are effectively breached, the upward space may open up [2][8].