GUOMAO REDUCER(SH:603915) Xiangcai Securities·2025-06-24 10:04Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Guomao Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the domestic general reducer market, with its product applications and sales network forming its core competitive advantage [3] - The growth logic is driven by domestic substitution and external acquisitions to expand into high-end markets [4] - The reducer industry has a broad market space and is expected to continue growing [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from favorable policies and market recovery, with projected revenues and earnings per share showing significant growth [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guomao Co., Ltd. has been deeply engaged in the reducer industry for over 30 years, with a comprehensive product line that covers various applications [14] - The company produces approximately 120,000 product models to meet diverse customer needs, enhancing customer loyalty [16] Industry Analysis - The reducer industry is experiencing a trend of domestic substitution and the exit of small enterprises due to increased competition and stricter environmental regulations [66] - The market size of China's reducer industry reached 132.1 billion yuan in 2022, with expectations to grow to 160.5 billion yuan by 2026 [5][55] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 2.589 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.67% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 294 million yuan, down 25.78% [21] - The company maintains a relatively high gross margin of 21.13% in 2024, despite a decline from the previous year [27] Growth Strategy - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its product matrix and expand into high-end markets, such as the acquisition of a 65% stake in Modoli Intelligent Transmission [4][19] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 2.75 billion yuan, 3.05 billion yuan, and 3.51 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.58, and 0.73 yuan per share [6][8]