瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port exceeded expectations. Bonded warehouses continued to reduce inventory, while general trade warehouses saw significant inventory accumulation. The arrival of mixed rubber increased significantly, while downstream enterprise procurement remained at a normal low level, leading to an unexpected increase in general trade inventory. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprise production schedules are gradually returning to normal levels. Some enterprises increased production moderately to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises is expected to remain basically stable. The production schedules of all - steel tire enterprises are temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after maintenance will boost the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,100 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 11,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber 9 - 1 was - 870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber 7 - 8 was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 165,045 lots, an increase of 8,658 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,457 lots, a decrease of 248 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 25,117 lots, a decrease of 9,856 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 9,112 lots, a decrease of 1,897 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,420 tons, a decrease of 260 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 31,349 tons, a decrease of 503 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was not specified in the form; the price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was not specified; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 329 yuan/ton, an increase of 187 yuan. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 68.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.95 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 63.77 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.92 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 47.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.55 Thai baht. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 145.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 11.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.48%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.29%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, a decrease of 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, a decrease of 1.24 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.97%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.47%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points. [2] - The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.83%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.47%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (June 22 - 28, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. There were no red areas south of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 617,300 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons from the previous period, with an increase rate of 1.70%. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2]