2025年利率债中期策略报告：债市慢牛，保持定力-20250624

Group 1 - The bond market is entering a new equilibrium in a low interest rate environment, with a focus on the self-balancing process of various pricing anchors and investor behavior adjustments [6][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ticket interest value in a narrow fluctuation market, suggesting that trading strategies should be flexible and based on market conditions [5][16]. - The external environment remains uncertain, while internal policies are clearly aimed at counteracting these uncertainties, leading to a weak recovery in the fundamentals [5][8]. Group 2 - The pricing range for 10-year government bonds has shifted down to OMO + 10-40 basis points, with core volatility expected between 1.6% and 1.7% [2][9]. - The report outlines a trading strategy that includes timing based on seasonal factors and key events, with a focus on the second half of the year as a critical trading window [2][9]. - The contribution of ticket interest to portfolio returns is expected to increase in a narrow fluctuation market, necessitating dynamic adjustments to bond configurations [3][9]. Group 3 - The analysis of the basic economic environment highlights the impact of tariff negotiations and the need for policy adjustments to mitigate external uncertainties [6][8]. - The monetary policy is expected to prioritize stable growth, with flexible adjustments to tools and liquidity conditions [5][8]. - Institutional behavior is analyzed in the context of an "asset shortage," with a focus on the changing dynamics of bank and insurance company investments [7][11].