Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-24 10:10Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International factors such as the approaching monsoon season improving the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected production recovery and increased Brazilian sugar supply are suppressing raw sugar prices. In China, the sugar import volume in May 2025 reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure and suppressed sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking demand, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, resulting in a slowdown in the decline and a short - term adjustment trend. Later, attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 349,073 lots, down 4,726 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 24,762, down 2,572; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,693 lots; the total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; and that of Thai sugar was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) was 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; and in Liuzhou it was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1,470 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 1,460 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (with a 50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar was 267 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; and for Thai sugar it was 255 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that Brazil exported 2,103,033.83 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of June, with an average daily export volume of 150,216.7 tons, a 6% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of the whole of June last year [2]