Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-24 10:22Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply - side has all manufacturers in a reduced - load operation state. The market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing, and most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, with production enthusiasm frustrated and some suspending delivery product lines [3]. - The demand side is relatively weak. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been reduced, the demand margin is weakening, silicon wafer enterprises' production is expected to decline, and cell enterprises also have production - reduction plans. The terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment after the "rush installation" boom [3]. - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The inventory backlog from silicon wafer enterprises' previous purchases suppresses the market price. Long - term operation should still be mainly short - selling [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 31,085 yuan/ton (up 470), the position volume is 72,286 lots (down 5,897), the Aug - Sep polysilicon price difference is 360 (up 100), and the polysilicon - industrial silicon price difference is 23,600 yuan/ton (up 405) [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon is 34,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis is 3,885 yuan/ton (up 1,085), the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.25 US dollars/kg (down 0.03), and the average prices of different types of polysilicon such as cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding materials are unchanged [3]. - Upstream: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 7,485 yuan/ton (up 65), the spot price is 8,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons (down 12,197.89), the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons (up 71.51), the monthly output is 299,700 tons (down 36,050), and the total social inventory is 559,000 tons (down 13,000) [3]. - Industry: The monthly yield of polysilicon is 95,000 tons (down 1,000), the monthly import volume is 793 tons (down 161), the weekly import spot price of polysilicon in China is 4.88 US dollars/kg (down 0.13), and the monthly import average price is 2.19 US dollars/ton (down 0.14) [3]. - Downstream: The monthly output of solar cells is 7,056,900 kW (down 135,900), the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W (up 0.01), the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 units (up 19,610,660), the monthly import volume is 12,098,490 units (down 8,021,950), and the monthly import average price is 0.29 US dollars/unit (up 0.02) [3]. b) Industry News - As of June 23, the mainstream market prices of P - type and N - type polysilicon of different types are stable. China's polysilicon import volume in May was 793 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.5%, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 10,097 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [3].