苹果产业日报-20250624

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of June 18, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storages in the main producing areas of China was 1164900 tons, a decrease of 109700 tons compared with the previous week. The shipping speed was basically the same as last week but slower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 16.43%, a decrease of 0.86% from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. Shandong is in the busy farming season with light trading. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 8.9%, a decrease of 0.76% from last week, and the shipping was slightly slower than last week. Other fruits' competition and substitution increase, the apple demand is weak, and the shipping speed slows down. Later, fruit farmers' willingness to sell may improve, putting pressure on apple prices. However, the current low inventory still supports prices, and the market will fluctuate in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the bagging situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 7674 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the closing price of the October contract was 7674 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The position of the main contract was 91335 lots, an increase of 1277 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures was 4117 lots, an increase of 1631 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged 80 and above, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged 75 and above) it was 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged 75 and above) it was 4.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged 70 and above semi - commercial) it was 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area was 1955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly wholesale price of apples was 9.59 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.56 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total inventory of national apple cold storages was 116.49 million tons, a decrease of 10.97 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.16, a decrease of 0.01; in Shaanxi it was 0.08, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples was 50000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons; the monthly export value was 51525000 US dollars, a decrease of 25529000 US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 2201050171064370.17 US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, unchanged. The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 8.5 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.75 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.61 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 4.11 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 10.25, an increase of 2.25; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market it was 14.25, an increase of 2.45; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market it was 22.25, an increase of 1.45 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 15.72%, up 0.24%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.71%, up 0.23% [2] Industry News - On June 24, 2025, the overall apple market in the producing areas remained weak. After the busy farming season, the number of inquiring merchants increased, but they were cautious in purchasing. Especially in the middle and late stages, there were many situations of price - pressing and selective picking for poor - quality goods. Packaging procurement was not active, and most of the goods were shipped by inventory holders themselves. The price of high - quality goods was stable, while there were price - concession transactions for poor - quality and clearance goods. For the new - season apples, the bagging work in the producing areas was coming to an end, and the production situation was becoming clear. According to the market research on the fruit - setting and bagging in the main apple - producing areas of Shaanxi, the fruit - setting and bagging situation this year will not have a particularly large reduction compared with the same period last year, with an expected reduction of 5% - 10% [2]