煤焦日报：地缘因素消退，煤焦承压下行-20250624

Group 1: Core Views - On June 24, the coke main contract closed at 1,351.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.03%. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. After the fourth round of price cuts on the 23rd, the coke price continued to fall. The futures market may maintain a wide - range oscillation in June considering the supply and demand factors [5][31]. - On June 24, the coking coal main contract closed at 784 points, with an intraday decline of 1.94%. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month. The conflict between Israel and Iran affected the futures price, and if the cease - fire is achieved, it will bring pressure on the coking coal futures [6][32]. Group 2: Industry News - Trump announced on the 24th that the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran had taken effect. Before that, there were missile attacks between the two sides [8]. - On June 24, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District remained stable, with the ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong fat coal at 780 yuan/ton [9]. Group 3: Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,220 | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 38.69% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,140 | - 2.56% | - 6.56% | - 29.63% | - 40.00% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coking coal | 865 | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Jingtang Port Australian coking coal | 1,190 | - 1.65% | - 6.30% | - 20.13% | - 44.13% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi coking coal | 1,250 | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Group 4: Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,351.5 | - 2.03% | 1,390.0 | 1,346.5 | 29,761 | 8,447 | 52,400 | 1,826 | | Coking Coal | | 784.0 | - 1.94% | 812.0 | 781.0 | 1,052,370 | 275,562 | 533,550 | 9,536 | [13] Group 5: Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total inventory) and coking coal (including mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants) from 2019 - 2025 [14][20]. - Other charts include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel mill profitability), coal washing plant production (inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant production (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization) [25][28]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Coke may maintain a wide - range oscillation in June, considering the possible recovery of coking coal supply after the safety month and the long - term pressure on the terminal export of ferrous metals [5][31]. - The coking coal futures may face pressure if the Israel - Iran cease - fire is achieved. Continuous attention should be paid to supply and geopolitical developments [6][32].