Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply of Shanghai lead is weakening, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to be under pressure and decline due to the weakening demand. The supply of primary lead refineries has decreased due to price fluctuations, and the subsequent production increase of recycled lead is difficult, with limited overall supply growth. The market trading is generally light, and the support for lead prices is relatively limited. Both charging pile and automobile demand are showing signs of a slowdown in growth rate. Overseas inventory is re - accumulating, and domestic inventory is slightly increasing. The decline in lead concentrate processing fees has a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled and primary lead [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,995 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars. - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 79,427 lots, down 1,566 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 249 lots, down 43 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 0 tons, down 43,760 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 51,291 tons, up 1,480 tons; the LME lead inventory is 281,025 tons, down 3,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract is - 205 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 24.26 dollars/ton, up 4.23 dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,029 yuan, down 42 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan. - The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.95%, down 16.33 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.57 tons, up 0.09 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The monthly import volume of lead ore is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries is 10,119.64 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly output of automobiles is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Middle East situation: Iran carried out a missile attack on a US air base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the prior notice, and later announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran. Oil prices dropped more than 9%. - Macro - aspect: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Waller said a rate cut might be possible as early as the July meeting, while Barkin thought there was no urgent reason for a rate cut, and Daly believed the economy was moving towards a situation where a rate cut might be needed [2].
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250624