三、影响因素分析

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Crude oil [1] - Report cycle: Weekly [1] - Report date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Core Views - From June 16 - 22, 2025, Brent crude oil futures fluctuated upward with a weekly increase of 2.5%, reaching a nearly 5 - month high of $79.04 per barrel. Geopolitical risks were the core driving factor, and the summer demand peak season and OPEC+ supply strategy adjustment also supported the price. The market showed dual characteristics of "risk - premium dominance and fundamental support" [3] Group 3: Futures Market Overview - From June 16 - 20, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures August contract closed at $77.32 per barrel last Friday with a weekly amplitude of 3.43%. The WTI crude oil futures August contract closed at $74.04 per barrel with a gain of 3.51%. The main crude oil contract SC2512 on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange reported 566.6 yuan per barrel, with a maximum of 582.9 yuan per barrel, a minimum of 508.3 yuan per barrel, and a weekly increase of 8.82% [3] Group 4: Spot Market Analysis - The spot premium in the Middle East continued, and Dubai crude oil was at a premium of about $2 per barrel compared to Brent futures [5]