纯碱期货：现货整体来看短期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market faced multiple pressures of oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory this week, with a pessimistic market trend. In the short term, the supply - demand drivers for soda ash were insufficient, and the price remained weak after breaking through the previous low. In the long term, the soda ash futures and spot markets may continue to be under pressure, although the summer maintenance period may have a certain phased impact on futures prices [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Analysis - The cost of soda ash production is mainly composed of fuel. Rising prices of raw salt, coal, and natural gas will increase production costs, which may lead to price increases and strengthen the market. Recently, the continuous decline in soda ash costs has weakened the cost - side support and increased the downward pressure on prices [8] Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Macroeconomic and Policy Impact: RMB depreciation (USD/CNY exceeding 7.2) supported export - oriented enterprises, with the export quotation of East China soda ash to Southeast Asia rising 5 - 8% month - on - month, but domestic demand remained weak. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut (over 60% probability of a rate cut in September) led to a short - term rebound in soda ash futures due to macro - sentiment, but the industrial logic of high inventory restricted the increase [9] - Futures Expectation: The futures market anticipates a peak season for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year (e.g., the installation volume in Q4 may increase by 30% quarter - on - quarter). Some funds have pre - arranged in the far - month contracts (2509), resulting in a smaller decline in futures prices than in spot prices and a narrowing of the basis [11] Associated Product Analysis - Upstream Raw Materials: Each ton of soda ash production consumes about 1.5 tons of raw salt, accounting for 30% - 40% of production costs. In the joint - alkali process, each ton of soda ash production consumes about 0.3 tons of coal, with coal costs accounting for about 20% - 25% [12] - Mid - stream Processing: Soda ash (sodium carbonate) and caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) are used in industries such as glass, chemicals, and textiles, and can be substituted in some scenarios. The production of 1 ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali process produces 0.8 tons of synthetic ammonia as a by - product, and the price of synthetic ammonia affects the profits of joint - alkali enterprises [12] - Downstream Terminal Industries and Consumption - related Products - Glass: In June, the daily melting volume of float glass was 165,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%, and the number of cold - repaired production lines increased, suppressing the demand for soda ash. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in June was 182,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%, supporting the incremental demand for soda ash, but the current inventory days of photovoltaic glass were 25 days (the warning line is 20 days) [12]