固收专题：下半年资产配置展望：“不下、则上”

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The economy in the second half of 2025 may not decline significantly, and bond yields and the stock market may rise. If the economy doesn't decline significantly, bond market funds may flow out, and stock market funds may flow in, leading to a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [4] - The current asset price reflects the consistent expectation of high uncertainty about the future economy. The bond market has priced in "increased loose monetary policy in the second half of the year" in advance, and the stock market shows high cost - effectiveness [2] - The reason for the consistent expectation of asset prices may come from historical experience, but the economy in the second half of 2025 may be better than the market's expected decline, with GDP growth likely to be above 5% [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Current Asset Price and Market Expectations - Bond market: The bond market has priced in "increased loose monetary policy in the second half of the year" in advance, with a significantly flattened yield curve, and most bond market funds are bullish and holding positions waiting for price increases [2] - Stock market: The stock market shows high cost - effectiveness. Compared with domestic deposits and bond yields, the dividend yield is high, and compared with overseas stock markets, the domestic stock market valuation is low [2] Reasons for Consistent Expectations of Asset Prices - Since 2021, the economic rhythm has been "economic pressure, policy support, economic pressure". After policy support ends, the economy usually faces downward pressure again, causing the stock market to fall and bond yields to decline [2] - From the perspective of GDP targets, in 2023 and 2024, the GDP targets were just achieved. Given that the GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was relatively high, the market expects a decline in the second half [3] Economic Situation and Outlook - From 2021 to September 2024, it was similar to the "three - phase superposition" from 2011 to 2015. After continuous de - leveraging, the current social financing growth rate has fallen to match the economic target [3] - Local government implicit debt rectification occurs about once every five years. After each shock, the economy usually rebounds. After the debt - resolution plan was introduced on November 8, 2024, the economy is expected to rebound [4] - In September 2024, the economy may have reached a double inflection point. In the second half of 2025, it may show "stable social financing and stable economy", with GDP growth likely to be above 5%, better than the market's expected decline [4] Asset Allocation Outlook - Bond market: If the economy doesn't decline significantly in the second half of the year, bond market funds may gradually flow out, similar to the situations in 2009 and 2020. The rhythm may be "stock market rise - bond yield lagged rise - capital interest rate rise last" [4][5] - Stock market: If the economy doesn't decline significantly in the second half of the year, off - market funds will gradually enter the stock market [5]