破局低利率系列3：美国低利率时代，有哪些投资机遇？（上）

Economic Context - The report defines a low interest rate environment in the U.S. as a policy rate below 2% and reviews three key periods: the Internet bubble (2001-2004), the financial crisis (2008-2018), and the COVID-19 period (2019-2022) [4][8][18]. Internet Bubble Period (2001-2004) - During this period, the policy rate was lowered to 1%, leading to a cumulative increase in housing prices of 34% and a 56% rise in gold prices, while the dollar index fell by 26% [9][38]. - The Nasdaq index experienced a maximum decline of 78% from March 2000 to October 2002, with household financial assets shrinking by 43% [23][38]. - The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% in 2000 to 6.3% in 2003, with bankruptcy filings increasing by 32% [25][27]. Financial Crisis Period (2008-2018) - The low interest rate lasted for approximately 116 months, with the policy rate dropping to near zero and multiple rounds of quantitative easing implemented [10][48]. - The S&P/CS housing price index increased by 26% from its 2012 low, while the stock market saw a cumulative rise of 132% from March 2009 [10][48]. - The average annual fiscal stimulus during this period accounted for 2% of GDP, significantly increasing federal deficit and leverage ratios [10][11]. COVID-19 Period (2019-2022) - The low interest rate environment persisted for about 33 months, with aggressive monetary easing leading to a 44% increase in housing prices [11][50]. - The stock market rebounded with a cumulative increase of 27%, while gold prices rose by 23% [11][50]. - The federal deficit reached historical highs, with the government leverage ratio significantly increasing due to extensive fiscal stimulus measures [11][50]. Asset Performance Summary - The asset performance during the low interest rate periods showed a clear hierarchy: gold > housing market > U.S. Treasuries > U.S. stocks > dollar [9][38]. - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks during the Internet bubble period, with the S&P 500 value index recording a 6% positive return compared to an 8% decline in the growth index [43][46].