有色金属日报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily analysis and investment suggestions for various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., based on factors such as spot prices, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and international events [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper closed positive. Today's spot copper price is 78415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium shrank to 40 yuan, and Guangdong premium shrank to 30 yuan. With the US manufacturing PMI in expansion and the euro - zone in contraction, and LME copper still stable at the MA20, short positions should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum declined with a 150 - yuan premium in East China. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.5 million tons. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, supply concerns eased. With high market divergence, shorting opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread should be noted. Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. There is a large spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Alumina spot trading was scarce, and with domestic production capacity in surplus, shorting on rebounds is recommended [3] Zinc - Due to high capital congestion, some short - sellers took profits, causing the price to rise. But downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and the spot premium declined. With supply recovering and demand weak, shorting on rebounds is advised [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined in a volatile manner. With the supply pressure increasing at the ore end and the price support from the upstream weakening, short positions should be held [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed positive with increased positions. With better - than - expected tin concentrate imports in May and weakening consumption, a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts should be held [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded. With the overall inventory increasing and the decline in the downstream inventory, and the slowdown in the decline of Australian ore prices, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose slightly. With the expected increase in polysilicon production and the end of organic silicon maintenance, the market rebounded. But with increased supply expected in June, the upside space is limited, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded with reduced positions, possibly due to technical repair. With the terminal demand falling and supply increasing, the imbalance between supply and demand is intensifying, and the trend is expected to be weakly volatile [11]