Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a slight decline. With the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production, it is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a significant decline. Due to the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East subsided, and the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, declining weakly, and a significant decline. With the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and the subsiding of geopolitical risk in the Middle East, the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. Under the suppression of bearish sentiment, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures will maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [9]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year significant decline of 7.56 percentage points [9]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [10]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year slight increase of about 1% [10]. Methanol - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 293,600 tons [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [11]. - As of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures margin was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 596 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 72,600 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week ending June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 59,900 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 49. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 300,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [13]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [14]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a trend of stabilizing in a volatile manner, and the bullish force in the market has increased. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [15] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 13,665 yuan/ton | - 285 yuan/ton | 185 yuan/ton | +335 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,665 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan/ton | 2,379 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 286 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 531.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 518.6 yuan/barrel | - 55.9 yuan/barrel | +12.8 yuan/barrel | +55.5 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts including crude oil basis, crude oil futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]
橡胶甲醇原油：地缘风险降温，能化集体回落
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-24 11:19